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Tom Wojcik’s report, based on figures available through Sept. 26, traces how the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is affecting fuel markets, fertiliser shipments and food risks. It also describes pressure on European consumers and farmers, while warning that the full harvest impact may emerge later. The report’s supplied text ends before its discussion of Polish heating and other later sections is complete.
Polish writer Tom Wojcik says the continuing closure of the Strait of Hormuz is transmitting the Gulf conflict into fuel markets and food production, with effects that could extend into 2027. His report, based on figures through Sept. 26, 2026, describes tanker traffic down more than 90 percent and warns that fertiliser shortages may reduce harvests after the current disruption.
Wojcik traces the disruption to US and Israeli military operations against Iran that began in late February. Iran has kept the strait closed since March using drones, missiles, mines and small boats, according to the report. The International Energy Agency describes the resulting disruption as the largest oil supply disruption the market has experienced. A ceasefire briefly brought prices back to pre-war levels in early summer, but it broke down. Brent crude was near $97 a barrel in early September, around $105 by mid-month and reached $108 on Sept. 24.
Diplomatic efforts have not resolved the standoff. On Sept. 22, Iran gave Washington a written proposal for a regional ceasefire of up to 60 days, phased reopening of the strait and an end to the US naval blockade. Washington rejected the proposal, the report says. It also cites a report that the US president expects bombing to resume after November’s midterm elections. The proposed detour around the Gulf faces another risk: Houthi forces seized a key Yemeni port this month, at the Red Sea chokepoint of Bab al-Mandab.
The report also describes sharp increases in tanker costs and fuel pressure in other countries. The Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF was up more than 2,300 percent for the year by early September, while some supertanker day rates reached about $860,000 on Sept. 10, compared with less than $100,000 before the war. Wojcik notes the fund is small and its manager expects rates to fall if the strait reopens. Separately, Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries have contributed to lower refining output, and the report says US diesel topped $6 a gallon for the first time on Sept. 10.
How Fuel Disruption Reaches Food
The effects extend beyond the price paid at a pump. The Strait of Hormuz normally carries up to 30 percent of internationally traded fertiliser, the report says. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization warns that shortages could tighten supplies through late 2026 and into 2027. Since fertiliser is needed before crops grow, a delivery delay can reduce a harvest even after shipping resumes. The impact may therefore become clearer only when smaller harvests arrive.
That risk compounds existing pressures. Wojcik cites 2025 as the first year in the Global Report on Food Crises with two confirmed famines, in Gaza and Sudan, and says food-assistance funding fell an estimated 59 percent between 2022 and 2025. The World Food Programme estimates that sustained high oil prices could push up to 45 million more people into acute food insecurity. These are warnings and estimates, not a count of people already affected by the Hormuz closure.
Farmers in Europe are also facing weather and market pressures. After a potato glut in 2025, growers in several countries planted less; five heatwaves and drought followed. A growers’ organisation expects a harvest down 25 percent, one of the smallest in a decade. The report presents this as an example of how tighter supplies and transport costs can interact, not as proof that the Gulf closure caused Europe’s crop losses.
A Fragile Chain of Dependencies
Wojcik frames the report from Poland, which he describes as bordering Europe’s largest war since 1945 and relying on coal and imported gas for heating while financing arms purchases with borrowed money. His central point is that several dependencies are being tested at once: oil shipping through Hormuz, refinery capacity affected by strikes, fertiliser transport and the ability of fuel networks to absorb sudden demand.
France provides one example of how a price shock can become a local supply problem. On Sept. 20, 15 percent of stations had run out of petrol or diesel, up from 11 percent two days earlier; the figure was 20 percent in Grand Est. The French government ruled out a shortage. About nine in ten of the affected stations belonged to TotalEnergies, whose €1.99-per-litre petrol cap drew drivers away from more expensive stations and left some sites unable to replenish tanks quickly. The official count records a station only when it is out of every petrol grade or out of diesel, so it may not capture every limited supply.
The report says Poland’s potato crop had reached about 7 million tonnes in 2025, 18 percent above the previous year, leaving farmers selling below cost by spring. Growers in Belgium, France, the Netherlands and Germany then planted 14 percent less. This background helps explain why a smaller harvest can affect prices, but the supplied report text ends during a discussion of grain prices and does not include its promised account of Polish winter heating.
“The world is not ending.”
— Tom Wojcik, author of the report
Harvest Effects Still Emerging
The full duration of the Hormuz closure and the prospects for reopening remain unclear. Washington rejected Iran’s Sept. 22 proposal, and the report does not provide evidence that a new agreement is imminent. It also does not establish whether the reported expectation of renewed bombing after the November elections will lead to military action.
Food impacts are still developing. The FAO warning concerns future yields and supplies, while the World Food Programme figure is conditional on sustained high oil prices. The source text supplied for this article ends partway through the report’s section on grain prices. It therefore does not provide the complete figures for grain, the report’s account of winter heating in Poland or any later updates to its analysis.
Reopening and Harvest Updates
The next major developments to watch are whether shipping through Hormuz resumes, whether diplomatic efforts restart and how oil prices respond. Any reopening would affect tanker availability and freight rates; the report’s account of the ETF manager’s view suggests those rates could fall if traffic returns.
For food supplies, the key evidence will arrive through harvest and price data later in 2026 and into 2027, alongside updates from the FAO and World Food Programme. In Europe, station availability, fuel prices and crop estimates will show how much pressure households and producers face. Wojcik’s report provides a snapshot through Sept. 26, rather than a final assessment of those outcomes.
Key Questions
What is the main development in the report?
Tom Wojcik reports that the Strait of Hormuz has remained closed since March, sharply reducing tanker traffic and affecting oil and shipping markets. He also describes possible knock-on effects for fertiliser shipments and food production.
Has the closure already caused food shortages?
The report cites warnings that fertiliser scarcity could reduce yields and tighten supplies through late 2026 and into 2027. It does not establish that the closure has already caused a specific amount of food loss.
What happened to fuel availability in France?
On Sept. 20, 15 percent of French stations were reported out of petrol or diesel, with a higher share in Grand Est. The government ruled out a national shortage; the report says many affected stations were TotalEnergies sites where capped prices drew extra demand.
Has Iran proposed reopening the strait?
According to Wojcik, Iran submitted a written proposal to Washington on Sept. 22 for a regional ceasefire of up to 60 days and a phased reopening. Washington rejected it. The report gives no confirmation of a subsequent agreement.
What is not covered in the supplied report?
The text provided ends during the grain-price section. It does not include the full discussion of Polish winter heating or the remainder of Wojcik’s report, so conclusions about those subjects cannot be drawn from the supplied material.
Source: hn
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